The Bottom Line

A complicated coastal storm is set to bring yet another extended period of messy weather to New Jersey over the next few days. Yes, it is another "super soaker" storm system, going beyond your standard round of "April showers".

attachment-A1 Stormy

You know the drill. Periods of rain. Heavy at times. Cloudy skies. A brisk wind. Miserably cool temperatures, stuck in the 40s. Just plain blah.

Among the dismal, dreary weather, there are some alarm bells to ring for hazardous conditions. I just want to quickly run through those concerns, so you know what to expect.

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1.) Heavy Rain & Flooding

Several waves of moderate to heavy rain will sweep through the state from Tuesday to Tuesday night to Wednesday to Wednesday night. According to the latest model guidance, the wettest part of the state during this time overally will probably be the northern half of New Jersey.

attachment-A4 Tuesday

48-hour rainfall totals will likely end up between 1 to 4 inches, again with the highest totals most likely to the north. In other words, between wet and soaked. Because the ground is already pretty saturated from recent rains, this does raise a concern for ponding and flooding. Get those umbrellas and windshield wipers ready to go. Watch out for big puddles. And never attempt to drive, walk, or swim through flooded areas.

2.) Coastal Flooding

It is practically automatic that a period of brisk easterly winds will spark a round of coastal flooding along the Jersey Shore. In this case, there are at least three consecutive high tide cycles that could exceed flood stage: Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, and late Wednesday night. Minor category flooding equates to a foot or two of water rise, in the usual spots. Still, stay alert — coastal flood advisories are in effect from Middlesex to southeastern Burlington counties.

3.) Thunderstorms

It looks like this storm system will become dynamic enough to produce some marginal instability in the atmosphere. That is the important ingredient in the recipe for thunderstorms.

By definition, every thunderstorm contains lightning and thunder. And therefore, by definition, every thunderstorm is potentially dangerous. Downpours are a good possibility in any embedded thunderstorm cells too, which could make those drenching rains even more precarious.

At this point, I'd say the thunderstorm risk is greatest on Wednesday over Tuesday.

4.) Severe Weather

Take a thunderstorm, add wind, hail, and/or a tornado, and you get a severe thunderstorm.

I think strong winds are the only concern of the bunch. Particularly in southern New Jersey, where temperatures may spike into the 50s, providing additional energy for thunderstorms to form and grow.

attachment-A2 Severe

Again, it is not a huge concern, but one to keep in mind. Southern NJ falls under a "Marginal" risk of severe weather (only level 1 of 5) according to the Storm Prediction Center.

5.) Snow

Tuesday will bring all rain. Wednesday will bring all rain. But on Thursday, as this storm system pulls away and drags down colder air, temperatures may drop enough for some lingering snowflakes. This would be a North Jersey thing, as you might expect. Likely to be exclusively north of Interstate 78, if not above Interstate 80. Accumulations should be minimal, given the warm, wet ground. But it warrants a mention — especially since some people freak out at any level of wintry weather, especially outside the core winter season. (Note: If you are traveling north into New York or New England, there could be some travel and visibility issues due to snow on Thursday.)

Yes, it can most definitely snow in New Jersey in April.

Any Brighter Days?

Thursday and Friday stay pretty cloudy and potentially showery, and Saturday may fall into that same boat too. We will hopefully see substantial glimmers of sunshine by Sunday. And then temperatures should bump up for Monday and beyond, with more highs in the 60s than anything else going forward.

Stay smart and be safe out there. And hang in there — drier, brighter weather will return eventually!

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Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow