70s and 80s return to NJ, but more stormy weather coming too

The Bottom Line

Warming and storming. A pretty familiar story in the spring and summer months here in New Jersey. Honestly, there is a lot to like in New Jersey's weather forecast. Especially with temperatures reaching the 70s and even 80s. But the occasionally unsettled weather continues, and you may be reaching for the umbrella or windshield wipers at times.

Trying to pinpoint exactly when it is going to rain and when it won't is a losing battle. There are approximately two big pushes of showers and thunderstorms coming up: Wednesday morning and daytime Thursday. However, there are no super-soaker washout days here.

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Tuesday

With the exception of some minor morning challenges — fog and South Jersey showers — Tuesday really is going to be a beautiful, warm day.

Clouds will give way to sunshine through Tuesday afternoon. And high temperatures will reach about 75 to 80 degrees. As usual, the Shore will be cooler, especially on barrier islands (in the 60s).

Rain chances are low for the rest of Tuesday. Having said that, I can not rule out a popup shower, especially around the late afternoon and early evening time frame. Isolated and brief, if it even happens.

Clouds will thicken up Tuesday evening. Overnight temperatures will stay comfortable, around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

A surge of warm air will make Wednesday the warmest day of the week. But we will have to deal with a quick round of rain first.

The next impulse to affect New Jersey with widespread rain will arrive early Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look likely between about 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. Wednesday. Generally light stuff. Although we will have enough energy and moisture in the atmosphere to fuel some stronger storm cells, which could dump a quick inch of rain in spots.

Once again, as soon as we get past those morning raindrops, Wednesday turns into a nice day. A very warm, summerlike day. High temperature away from the coast will surge into the 80s.

Again, we will have to watch for some popcorn thunderstorm activity late-day. Especially since the heat and humidity could fuel some storm cells with downpours and gusty winds.

Thursday

Thursday will be a challenging weather day, as our unsettled weather comes to a head and temperatures start to tumble.

First of all, with cloudy skies and the return of that dreaded on-shore breeze, temperatures will turn cooler Thursday. Highs will be limited to the lower 70s or so — that is still a hair above normal for this time of year.

Showers and thunderstorms will also come into play during the daytime hours on Thursday, with the chance literally lasting from morning through early evening. But I am struggling to piece together the details on this one. (In other words, uncertainty is fairly high.) I do not think it will be a persistent, steady, all-day rain. But everyone in the state probably gets wet at some point.

Once again, there will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday.

Friday

Things will start to simmer down on Friday. But we may not be quite done with clouds and raindrops just yet.

Friday will be mostly cloudy overall. And, as we tap into a new air mass, high temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 60s. It's hard to call that "cool" — but definitely "cooler" compared to the 80s earlier in the week.

There is a chance for spotty showers and drizzle around on Friday. And that is all I'm comfortable saying about rain on Friday at the moment. It is not a slam dunk. If we can manage a mainly dry day, it should be a pleasant one.

The Weekend & Beyond

I am able to give you a dry forecast for Saturday. Under partly sunny skies and with a stiff westerly breeze, high temperatures should end up close to the seasonable 70 degree mark. A pleasant start to the weekend.

Mother's Day Sunday is looking iffy though, as forecast models trend in a rainier direction. Not a washout, mind you — the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms would be midday and afternoon. But boy I'd like to erase the rain and clouds, and push temperatures out of the 60s for all the moms of New Jersey. We'll see how things continue to trend.

Next week will start cooler than average, but I suspect we will be back in the 70s again before you know it.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.