NJ’s very dry October ends with two days of unseasonable warmth

The Bottom Line

In the back of my mind, I am already starting to compile my annual list of New Jersey's top weather and climate stories of the year. And I am really thinking this incredibly dry October is a contender for the top slot so far. The fact that most NJ towns will finish the month with no measurable rainfall — for the first time in recorded history — is astounding. The top rainfall total this month was in Blackwells Mills in Somerset County, which accumulated a paltry 0.16" on the 5th of October.

Severe drought concerns continue to spiral. Fire danger remains very high to extreme, depending how windy it is. And unfortunately, there are still no drought-busting storm systems in the forecast through the next week. (Although there will be a couple chances of rain coming up.)

OK, now that the "doom and gloom" drought news is out of the way, let's focus on the other big weather story: Some incredibly warm temperatures for both Wednesday and Halloween Thursday, potentially flirting with record highs.

Changes are coming just as November begins on Friday. A cold front is set to deliver a round of rain showers, followed by a brisk wind and a "whoosh" of cooler air. I think it is fair to call Friday an active weather day.

We've got highs in the 80s and lows in the 30s in the forecast, and everything in between. Let's dive in to the details.

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Wednesday

Wednesday morning temperatures are in the 40s and 50s. Noticeably warmer than the past couple of chilly starts.

I encountered some pockets of dense fog on my ride to work early Wednesday morning. It is not being observed everywhere. But the increase in warmth and humidity in the air will lead to some visibility issues through about 8 or 9 o'clock.

Wednesday will be unseasonably warm, with high temperatures in the mid 70s. Feeling more like a late May or mid-September kind of day. A full 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday. And upwards of 15 degrees above normal for late October.

We will see a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. Probably leaning toward low clouds early on, then sunshine through midday, followed by some extra clouds in the afternoon. Our weather will stay completely dry yet again.

Temperatures will remain on the mild side for your Mischief Night, with a few clouds lingering overhead. Lows dip into the mid 50s — you might not even need a jacket.

Thursday (Halloween)

One of the warmest Halloweens in recorded history for New Jersey, as high temperatures surge to around 80 degrees. Make sure you dress appropriately under your costume. And make sure your candy does not melt!

It looks like Thursday will be mostly sunny. And the best news of all: Completely rain-free.

Friday

Friday's weather turns more active, as a cold front slides into New Jersey.

After wrapping up October — likely cemented as New Jersey's driest calendar month ever recorded — it is almost poetic that it's going to rain on the morning of November 1st.

A line of spotty showers will cruise from northwest to southeast Friday morning, between about 4 a.m. and Noon. Any given spot in New Jersey could see wet weather for an hour or two. At least I hope every part of NJ gets wet here.

But here's the thing. This ain't a drought-buster. Total rainfall will be less than a tenth of an inch statewide. And those showers may completely fizzle out before reaching the southern coast.

After showers exit, skies will clear from clouds to sunshine. It will be a breezy day, with potential gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. And temperatures will drop ... eventually. We should still see highs in the 70s, before thermometers start to slide downward Friday afternoon.

Saturday

By Saturday morning, we will be back on the chilly side of the world. There is a good chance for inland temperatures in the 30s to start Saturday — our next opportunity for some frost.

The first weekend of November will feature temperatures at or below seasonal normals. Highs on Saturday will reach about 60 degrees. The wind should progressively lighten up as the day goes on.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday will bring more clouds into play. And similarly cool temperatures, reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

One forecast model — the GFS — paints a cluster of rain showers pushing into New Jersey late Sunday into Monday. I am not really buying a wet scenario here, since our air will be very dry and we have been burned by way too many weak shortwaves lately. But it is worth mentioning, and something we will continue to follow.

A warming trend will kick in again next week. Monday looks mostly cloudy in the 60s. Election Day Tuesday should be quite pleasant, with sunshine and 70s.

Late next week could get interesting, as guidance has shown a substantial storm system over New Jersey for several runs now. It is too early to talk confident details at this time, but watch the forecast for Thursday-Friday carefully. I would love to see an inch of rain finally give NJ a good soaking.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.