NJ’s driest month on record ends with near-record warm Halloween

The Bottom Line

Happy Halloween, New Jersey! I can not believe the end of October is already upon us. And I also can not believe it really did not rain this month. The dusty desert formerly known as New Jersey is really looking parched at this point. And while we do have some rain to talk about in the forecast, we need a lot of wet weather to fully dig out of this drought hole.

As the headline of this post suggests, New Jersey's driest month in recorded history (since 1895) will end with near-record high temperatures for your Halloween. We hit 80 degrees in a few spots on Wednesday. And I expect many more will exceed that benchmark on Thursday. It is not totally unheard of to get that kind of warmth in mid-autumn — but it is unusual and unseasonable.

Changes are ahead though, as a cold front arrives to kickoff November on Friday. That means rain, wind, and a cooldown will carry into the weekend.

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Thursday (Halloween)

New Jersey's warmest Halloween on record occurred in 1946. 82 degrees at Newark, 81 at Trenton, and 83 near Atlantic City. Keep those numbers in mind, as we dive into a very warm day.

Even Thursday morning, temperatures are mainly in the 50s. You can probably skip the jacket to start. And you definitely will not need it later on.

Be prepared to sweat under your costume on this Halloween. And if you leave a bowl of candy in the sun, it will probably melt. High temperatures will reach about 80 degrees — again, very close to those records.

Other than the (relative) heat, there are no weather concerns for your trick-or-treating fun. Skies will be mostly sunny, until some extra clouds build in the late afternoon time frame. And we stay completely dry. Even dew points are in the 50s — not too dry, not sticky at all, nice and comfy.

As Halloween night falls — sunset is around 6 p.m. these days — it will stay quite mild. Temperatures will only dip into the 60s overnight. Almost a summerlike evening.

Friday

Friday will be a cold front day for New Jersey. A day of changing weather.

Having said that, November begins with one more warm day. Friday's high temperatures will hit the mid 70s — still 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

There is a chance of rain Friday morning, ahead of that frontal boundary. However, forecast models still show nothing more than paltry spotty showers. Every corner of New Jersey has a shot at getting wet. (For the first time in over a month, for some.) But rainfall totals will be less than a tenth of an inch — hardly a drop in the bucket.

The rest of Friday will progress from clouds to sun. And it will be breezy, with regular wind gusts over 20 mph. That will add a blustery characteristic to the day. It will also ramp up our fire danger again, especially as dew points plummet.

You will really feel the influx of colder air Friday night. Low temperatures will probably end up around 40 degrees, with inland NJ potentially back in the "frost zone" by Saturday morning.

Saturday

The first weekend of November will bring the return of seasonable temperatures. That is not necessarily a bad thing, especially since our weather will remain dry and pleasant.

Saturday will be sunny and dry, with high temperatures settling in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. There may be an occasional breeze, but winds will be much lighter than on Friday.

Sunday

Clouds will increase on Sunday, but the rest of the forecast is the same as Saturday. Dry weather, light winds, and highs in the upper 50s to around 60.

The Extended Forecast

Another chance of showers will greet us Monday morning, as a shortwave potentially clips by northern New Jersey.

Temperatures should moderate through the middle of next week, likely back in the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be some north-south temperature swings next week, depending on exactly where rain, clouds, and thermal boundaries set up.

And then another chance of rain will come along around Thursday-Friday, with another cooldown probably arriving just in time for next weekend.

Programming Note

The CMDZ Weather Blog will take a hiatus through next week, as I take some much-needed vacation time. Daily forecast summaries, detailed forecast graphics, and regular app alerts will be on hold through Monday, November 11th. If any nasty weather — a winter storm, tropical storm, or severe thunderstorms — threatens New Jersey, we will change plans and cover it accordingly.

Happy Halloween and Happy Jersey Week, one and all!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.