Wednesday starts wet and ends cool, but warmer days are coming

Pockets of rain have been pushing through New Jersey Wednesday morning, making for a wet early commute. Some snow has fallen in higher elevation areas of northwestern New Jersey only, where temperatures are close to the freezing mark, with a coating on the ground in limited areas. We will dry out by late morning, but clouds hang on through Wednesday afternoon. It is going to be a cool day, with high temperatures stuck in the 40s. Thursday will come closer to 50 degrees. And then we'll finally see seasonably mild 50s for Friday into early Saturday, along with our next chance for some rain showers. Colder air and a brisk wind return Saturday afternoon.

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Wednesday NJ weather: Wet start, chilly finish

Cold rain. Blech. It is uncomfortable and raw and just plain miserable.

Of course, if temperatures had trended just 5 to 8 degrees colder, we would be facing quite the wintry scene around New Jersey.

Instead, you will be utilizing umbrella and windshield wipers Wednesday morning, with pockets of rain around the state. Two surprises for me here: 1.) How heavy the rain has gotten, really pouring in spots. 2.) The forecast end time for the rain has trended later, now wrapping up in the "late morning" time frame, around 10 or 11 a.m.

Temperatures are close to the freezing mark around Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties, so there has been some wintry mix and snow activity. I have even seen reports of a coating on the ground in spots there in NW NJ. But again, most of New Jersey is starting Wednesday wet, not wintry.

Temperatures will only climb from the 30s into the lower-mid 40s by Wednesday afternoon. Cool, but calm. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, even as we dry out from midday through the afternoon.

Under a blanket of clouds, Wednesday night will be dry and cold. Overnight lows will end up around the freezing mark, in the lower to mid 30s. (Although no substantial icing is expected.)

Thursday NJ weather: Not bad

Even though temperatures will still trend 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals, I can not complain too much about Thursday's forecast.

We will see a mix of clouds and some sun poking through, as we stay completely dry. Winds will be light — a nice change of pace from our recent blustery weather. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s to around 50. Again, better.

Friday NJ weather: Seasonable, spotty showers

Friday finally brings a return to seasonable temperatures, with highs in the 50s.

But it will turn cloudy.

And eventually, spotty hit-or-miss showers will push into the Garden State. Latest model guidance shows raindrops holding off until Friday evening at the earliest. All rain, given those mild temperatures in the 50s.

Saturday NJ weather: From mild to cold

Showers chances will continue into Saturday morning. And temperatures will probably bump up a couple more degrees, likely flirting with 60 degrees for at least South Jersey.

But the warmth will not last. Saturday is a cold front day, so a brisk wind will force temperatures downward through the afternoon. We will probably be in the 40s by sunset, and then close to freezing overnight.

Sunday and Monday actually look like pleasant weather days, with sunshine and calm winds and highs near 50 degrees.

It looks like the first half of next week — the big Thanksgiving holiday week — is trending toward the warm side. And then things turn chilly again by the weekend. There could be some raindrops along the way, on Tuesday and again in the Thanksgiving-Black Friday neighborhood. (It is still very early for a pinpoint forecast — I am just given you an idea of my current thinking.)

There is no snow on the horizon for New Jersey, for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.