Two weather nuisances leading up to Thanksgiving: Rain and wind

All of New Jersey is going to get wet eventually Tuesday, as we encounter some "weather nuisances" in the 48 hours leading up the Thanksgiving holiday. Under cloudy skies, a sprinkle is possible Tuesday morning, followed by showers arriving Tuesday afternoon, and then steadier rain Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be well in the 50s — well above freezing, so everything that falls will be wet and not wintry. Wednesday will shoot into the 60s, with additional spotty, hit-or-miss showers around. A cold front arrives Wednesday night, ushering in wind and colder air. It will be 20 to 25 degrees colder for Thanksgiving Day, with wind gusts to about 30 mph. Temperatures will stay unseasonably chilly for Black Friday and Small Business Saturday too.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Getting wet eventually

Everyone in New Jersey will need the umbrella Tuesday, as our next storm system and batch of rain slides in.

But not yet. Tuesday morning is quiet and chilly. Status quo temperatures are mainly in the 30s to start the day, with cloudy skies overhead.

A sprinkle is possible at any time Tuesday morning or afternoon. (Maybe even a flurry in North Jersey if it happens early enough.) Then, around mid-afternoon, the chance for scattered light rain will start rising. Having said that, the steadiest and most widespread rain should hold off until Tuesday evening — that should be the wettest part of the entire week here.

High temperatures on Tuesday will climb into the mid 50s. And thermometers will hold steady or even rise slightly overnight as that storm system carries not only rain but also warmer, more humid air into New Jersey too.

Steady rain should dial back to scattered showers sometime between Midnight and daybreak. Total rainfall will probably end up around a half-inch for most, give or take.

Wednesday NJ weather: Spotty showers, mild temps

I want to reiterate there is nothing inherently "dangerous" in this forecast. The rain will not be heavy enough to cause widespread flooding. Any thunderstorms will not be severe enough to threaten lives or property. There is zero threat of wintry weather. And winds will not become gusty enough to cause damage.

Wednesday's rain chances will be limited to spotty, hit-or-miss showers — I suspect there will be more dry hours than wet ones across the Garden State. Given the ramp-up in warmth and humidity in the atmosphere, there could even be some rumbles of thunder and localized downpours around.

High temperatures on Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 60s around the state. I would not rule out a 70, especially if the sun pops out in the afternoon.

Once sunset arrives Wednesday, our attention will turn to an arriving cold front. That will kick up a brisk wind Wednesday evening, sending temperatures nosediving again.

Thursday NJ weather: Windy and cold

Happy Thanksgiving! It seems like this particular holiday is always unseasonably warm or blustery and cold for New Jersey. And this year, the latter will definitely come true.

Wind gusts to 30 mph could be a problem for the balloons flying high in the NYC and Philadelphia parades Thursday morning. Temperatures will be in the 30s in the morning, with wind chills ("feels like" or "apparent" temperatures) easily in the 20s.

Highs on Thursday will only reach the lower 40s, with that brisk wind blowing all day. At least Thanksgiving Day will be completely dry, with a mix of sun and clouds. Just be sure to bundle up for any traveling and/or outdoor activities.

Thursday night will probably bring a widespread freeze across New Jersey, with widespread 20s on the temperature map by Friday morning. It could be the coldest night of the season so far.

Friday NJ weather: Still blustery

Black Friday will bring more of the same: A bright sky, a brisk wind, and cold temperatures. Look for a mostly sunny day, with highs around 40 and wind gusts again near 30 mph.

Saturday will be calmer, but still sunny and cold. Highs again will struggle to rise past the 40 degree mark.

Temperatures should start to moderate on Sunday into early next week, at least into the upper 40s. But forecast models are showing some rain chances coming into play in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame too. Nothing crazy — but again, it will be a busy travel period, so worth watching closely.

The other thing to watch in the long-range forecast is a signal toward colder, more active, more wintry weather in the 7 to 10 day range. Guidance has been hinting at some snow chances late next week. Nothing specific yet — just the next big thing to watch as we close out the holiday weekend.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.