Quiet weather for NJ for now, possible trouble brewing for next week

No big weather problems are expected for Thursday — just cool temperatures. Patchy fog in the morning will be followed by mostly cloudy skies, dry conditions, and calm winds through the rest of the day. High temperatures will push to around 50 degrees. We will see seasonable 50s Friday, but it comes with thicker clouds and scattered rain at night. Saturday dries out and brings our next blustery cooldown. And then New Jersey will settle back into calm, reasonably pleasant weather into early next week.

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Thursday NJ weather: Clouds and some sun

Thursday's weather will be fine. Just fine. Nothing to complain about. But not spectacular either.

We begin the day with some patchy fog around the state, an effect of the temperature dropping to meet the dew point. Temperatures are pretty cold in spots, averaging 30s across the state.

Highs should reach about 50 degrees Thursday afternoon. (We were very close to that mark on Wednesday, despite a cooler forecast and abundant clouds.) Clouds will absolutely win the sky once again, with very limited peeks of sun late-day.

Even so, our weather stays completely dry and winds stay light for a change.

Thursday night will stay mostly cloudy to overcast, with chilly temperatures once again. Lows will dip into the mid 30s or so.

Friday NJ weather: Cloudy skies, rain late

Friday's cloud cover will get even thicker. And this time around, I could see a few sprinkles developing in the afternoon hours.

At least temperatures will finally spike to seasonable levels, in the lower to mid 50s.

Ahead of an eventual cold front, rain chances will go up after sunset Friday evening. A batch of steady yet scattered rain is expected Friday night, likely totaling about a quarter-inch to half-inch across the state. As we have seen less than an inch of rain so far in the month of November — pitiful — this wet weather will be most welcome and much needed.

No severe or wintry weather is expected Friday night. Just wet.

Saturday NJ weather: Cooldown day

Showers may linger through about mid-morning on Saturday. But eventually, a cold front will put a quick end to any raindrops and clouds.

I had previously promoted the idea of hitting 60 degrees on Saturday. But now, given an earlier arrival of that cold front, I am not so sure 60 is within reach. We should still start the day in the 50s though. Maybe a couple of 60-ish degree readings in South Jersey.

Thermometers will not stay on the mild side, however. As colder air whooshes in on a brisk northwesterly wind Saturday afternoon, temperatures will slide downward from the 50s through the 40s. So it will turn into a blustery and colder day. (Although admittedly I do not see wind speeds rising much about the "breezy" category here.)

Keep in mind, this weekend begins the busy Thanksgiving travel week. While I do not expect any truly dramatic weather on Saturday, the early rain and late wind could be enough to delay some flights at area airports.

Sunday NJ weather: Sunshine returns

By Sunday morning, temperatures will really bottom out at or below freezing. Back to the cold side.

But then Sunday settles down with sunshine, light winds, and highs near 50 degrees. I would call that a nice late November day.

Monday stays quiet and seasonable, with increasing clouds and highs in the 50s.

The forecast for next week is highly uncertain, in terms of precipitation chances. (More on that in a second.) But I can tell you that all model guidance is pointing toward a mild first half of the week. We might even touch 60s by Wednesday!

But here's the irrefutable truth. (And you don't need a forecast model to tell you this.) Eventually, that warm streak will come to an end. You know a cooldown is inevitable, given how much cool air has been in the neighborhood lately.

One model, the GFS, puts rain over New Jersey on Tuesday. And then a rainy, windy cooldown over us on Thursday morning — that is Thanksgiving morning. Obviously that could have implications for travel, parades, outdoor cooking and other activities.

Meanwhile, the European model keeps Thanksgiving dry. But paints a significant winter storm over New Jersey from next Friday into Saturday.

Note: I am absolutely not presenting this information as a definitive forecast. Nor is it my intention to hype up a potential "snow bomb" or to scare potential travelers. I simply want to illustrate 1.) the potential for impactful weather over the big holiday weekend, but also 2.) the massive uncertainty within this 8 to 10 day forecast.

The bottom line: Keep a close eye on the forecast for next week as it continues to evolve. We could be in for a bumpy ride and a busy week, folks.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.