Roller coaster weather for NJ’s holiday week: Rainy warmup, windy cooldown

As we begin the big holiday week, there are some ups and downs in New Jersey's weather forecast. We have to talk about a big warmup and a big cooldown, with some rain and wind along the way. Monday will be mostly sunny and quiet, with seasonable high temperatures near 50 degrees - similar to Sunday. Scattered rain will push in Tuesday afternoon, with additional spurts on rain on Wednesday. But temperatures will temporarily warm into the 60s. Colder air arrives for Thanksgiving Day, with a gusty wind. Highs will barely reach the 40s. I'm a little concerned about the balloons being able to fly in area parades on Thursday morning. And flight delays (not necessarily cancellations) could be an issue this week due to the rain and wind.

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Monday NJ weather: Quiet weather for now

The big holiday week begins where the weekend ended, with quiet, seasonable weather.

Monday morning is starting out cold, with that typical variety of temperatures around the Garden State. The coldest corners are in the 20s. Most spots are in the 30s. Urban and coastal areas are in the 40s.

High temperatures Monday afternoon should reach the lower 50s, very similar to Sunday. That is close to normal for late November too.

Expect mostly sunny skies and dry weather Monday. It will be a bit breezy through the afternoon. Overall, a decent day.

Monday night stays quiet. Cloud cover will increase, as low temperatures dip into the mid 30s or so.

Tuesday NJ weather: Scattered rain builds in

Tuesday is a warm front day. Yes, that means temperatures will be going up. It also means rain chances will be going up too.

Under cloudy skies, I can't rule out a sprinkle or flurry Tuesday morning. Rain chances will only increase through Tuesday afternoon and especially evening, leading to everyone in the state getting wet eventually. (I suspect the steadiest, most widespread rain across New Jersey will come Tuesday night.)

Total rainfall will probably be about a half-inch between Tuesday and Wednesday. Nothing wintry, severe, or crazy here — just wet.

Tuesday's high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 50s, with thermometers rising as rain moves in at night.

Wednesday NJ weather: Mild but unsettled

Wednesday will remain unsettled, although rainfall will be more spotty — more hit-or-miss. There will be some showers around, but also some breaks of dry weather.

It will be mostly cloudy and mild Wednesday, with high temperatures temporarily spiking into the 60s. So if you do have a period of dry weather, that will be quite nice.

The arrival of a cold front Wednesday night will be quite noticeable, as a gusty west-northwest wind will kick up and temperatures will nosedive. Overnight temperatures will stay above freezing, in the 30s. But wind chills could be in the 20s.

Thanksgiving NJ weather: Windy and cold

It is back to blustery, just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Wind gusts of 30+ mph are looking likely on Thursday, as colder air "whooshes" into New Jersey. Not only will the wind add a bite to the newly refreshed cold air, it will put the balloons in the Thanksgiving Day parades in jeopardy — if gusts reach 34 mph, they do not fly.

High temperatures on Thursday will only reach the lower 40s. A full 20 degrees colder than the day before. And good reason to bundle up warmly if you'll be traveling, cooking outside, etc.

Black Friday stays cold and blustery, again with highs near 40 degrees and wind gusts to 30 mph. Unseasonably chilly temperatures will stick around through Saturday too, although hopefully the wind will lighten up. Hopefully temperatures will moderate to close out the holiday weekend on Sunday. We will eye our next storm system and chance of precipitation next week.

Forecast models have been hinting on-and-off about a colder, more active weather pattern for the first week of December, which is next week. I am not sold on that possibility yet, but that would be our next opportunity for some snowflakes in New Jersey — not before. Good news for Thanksgiving week travelers, as we only have to contend with rain and wind, and nothing more sinister or impactful here.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.