Tuesday’s rain and snow: Timeline, totals, impacts for NJ

Tuesday Part 1: Quick Hit of Widespread Snow

There are no changes to report in the forecast, as our storm system is arriving on time and on track. The only surprise thus far is that temperatures have trended a bit colder than I expected. That gives extra credence to the idea that initial precipitation type will be more wintry than wet for New Jersey.

As of this writing, initial precipitation is now arriving. And with temperatures at or just below the freezing mark, there are areas of snow and/or wintry mix around inland New Jersey. It is very important to stay alert to changing weather conditions throughout the morning commute, as low visibility and slippery roads could become a big sudden problem in spots.

Tuesday Part 2: Changing to Rain, Brunt of the Storm

By mid to late Tuesday morning, rising temperatures will cause a flip from wintry mix to plain rain for almost the entire state. The one exception will be northwestern New Jersey, where accumulating snow will continue until the early afternoon hours.

That timing is important, because the heaviest, steadiest bands of precipitation of this storm system are expected to come through New Jersey between the late morning and afternoon. So central, southern, and coastal NJ gets soaked, with up to an inch of total rainfall. NW NJ gets snowy and icy, with up to a few inches of snow accumulation and a glaze of ice possible.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for six North Jersey counties, cautioning of slippery travel conditions. The advisory covers Hunterdon, Morris, western Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren counties. Note: It is an advisory, not a warning.

Even that area of far North Jersey could transition from wintry to wet by late afternoon as temperatures continue to rise. Highs will probably reach the mid 30s (north) to mid 40s (south) by the end of the day.

Tuesday Part 3: Winding Down

Our storm system will pull away in the early evening hours on Tuesday, around dinnertime, and any leftover rain and snow will taper off by 7 or 8 p.m. at the latest.

As skies clear Tuesday evening, a brisk northwest wind will kick up, gusting over 20 mph. And a new concern will arise: icing. With overnight low temperatures dropping to around 30 degrees, wet surfaces could become icy and slick by Wednesday morning. Watch your step.

What's Next?

Wednesday will be a much brighter and quieter weather day. Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower 40s. That is below normal for this time of year. But at least winds will be calm and our weather will stay dry.

Thursday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. The day will become increasingly blustery, as a cold front kicks up wind speeds again. High temperatures will only reach about 40 degrees.

And then Friday looks really cold. Morning low temperatures in the teens and 20s. Afternoon highs only in the 30s, despite good sunshine. There will be a chance of snow showers Friday night, possibly with some light accumulations to watch for.

Temperatures should moderate into the first weekend of December, back into the 40s. Our next opportunity for a blast of cold air and potentially wintry weather would be at the end of next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.