One more unsettled, soggy day, then NJ flips back to nice summer weather

The Bottom Line

After parts of New Jersey got a thorough and much-needed drenching on Monday, with 1 to 2+ inches of total rainfall for some, unsettled and occasionally wet weather is expected to continue Tuesday. As an area of low pressure slowly moves through the region, additional periods of scattered rain are expected throughout the day. While severe weather is unlikely going forward, there could be some downpours and rumbles of thunder along the way. South Jersey — which remained relatively dry on Monday — will probably be the wettest and stormiest corner of the state this time around. It looks like the entire state will dry out by around 7 p.m., and then skies will clear quickly through Tuesday evening. Wednesday and Thursday will be very nice days with bright skies, seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity. Our next chance of inclement, soggy weather arrives Friday.

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Weather Hazards

The good news is that the severe weather threat has dropped dramatically compared to Monday. While a few downpours and occasional rumbles of thunder remain possible through Tuesday, damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are not expected.

Likewise, flooding concerns have eased considerably. Monday's Flood Watch was allowed to expire early Tuesday morning, signaling that the threat for widespread flooding has diminished. Localized ponding on roadways is still possible underneath heavier downpours, but widespread flooding would be surprising going forward.

Climatological Context

June 23 is the 174th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 83 to 84 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 63 to 66 degrees.

June is, on average, New Jersey's third warmest and third wettest month of the year.

Tuesday

This wet weather is such a double-edged sword. We really need the rain, after weeks and months of persistently dry weather. But there are so many outdoor activities, graduation ceremonies, and parties planned this week.

Let me start by answering the two biggest questions for Tuesday... Is the day going to be a total washout? No way, although everyone in the state will probably need an umbrella at some point. And when will the wet weather exit? Probably not until about 7 p.m. — I just can't guarantee statewide dry weather until early this evening.

Tuesday morning is relatively dry. We had some storms earlier, but radar shows a lull over New Jersey for now. But there is more rain activity to the south and west. And there is plenty of humidity in the air to sustain the formation and development of additional showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.

Rain will come and go throughout the day, with scattered showers, occasional downpours, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 70s thanks to persistent clouds and those raindrops, making it noticeably cooler than recent days.

As the center of this storm system shifts, South Jersey stands the best chance of picking up beneficial rainfall after missing out on much of Monday's soaking. (And the best chance of a stronger thunderstorm too, by the way.)

By early Tuesday evening, around 7 p.m., rain should wind down statewide. Skies should quickly clear through late evening and overnight, and humidity levels will start to drop. Look for an overnight low temperature around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

If Tuesday is "unsettled" then Wednesday is "settled" weather.

Sunny skies will return, with a refreshing 20 mph breeze. The day looks completely dry. And seasonably warm, with afternoon high temperatures reaching about 80 to 85 degrees across the Garden State. Most importantly, dew points take a big dip, which means we get a taste of delightfully comfortable low humidity.

Thursday

Most of Thursday looks good too.

Skies should feature a mix of sunshine and passing clouds. High temperatures will once again climb into the lower to middle 80s. Humidity will tick up just a little bit.

A few showers may begin to develop late Thursday, as our next storm system. I will say the most likely scenario would be for that rain to hold off until late Thursday night, although an earlier stray shower is a possibility we will have to watch.

Friday & Beyond

Circle Friday as New Jersey's next unsettled weather day on the calendar. A periods of rain appears likely as another storm system moves in.

Rainfall looks light to moderate on Friday, and forecast model parameters don't scream a severe weather or flooding risk. So that is good news.

I am concerned that a piece of that storm system will linger into Saturday too, keeping showers in the forecast through at least the first half of the day. Summer weekends are precious, and I do not like to see them rained on! I would not make bets or change plans because of that Saturday morning rain just yet — we should have a clearer picture of that rain chance within the next day or two.

Hopefully, we will see pockets of sun Saturday afternoon, pushing high temperatures to around the 80-degree mark.

As it stands, both Sunday and next Monday look pleasant with partly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.