NJ weather: Kicking off June with two days of summerlike warmth
The Bottom Line
Happy June 1st, New Jersey! This is a very special day on the weather calendar. It is the start of climatological summer - the average warmest three months of the year. It is also the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through November 30.
And how appropriate, our summerlike warmup will peak Thursday and Friday, just in time to start the new month. Our protective dome of high pressure is weakening and exiting though, which will lead to changes.
We do have to talk about a strong backdoor cold front, and how it will affect our weather heading into the weekend. (The timeline of which continues to shift earlier, by the way.) Specifically, expect a big cooldown and some showers. But this is not the big soaking we really need right now - just some spotty showers and clouds for the first weekend of June.
We have the makings of a beautiful summerlike day here. Dare I say, a great beach day. (Although there is a Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf posted for the Jersey Shore Thursday.)
Temperatures are mainly in the 50s to start out. And thermometers will rise quickly through mid-morning, thanks to abundant sunshine and dry air.
Highs will depend on where you are. Most of New Jersey should reach the lower to mid 80s Thursday afternoon. Similar to a mid-summer day. But it will be cooler along the coast — 70s along mainland beaches, and 60s on barrier islands. That is more seasonable, more typical for early June.
I have seen some indications of marine-layer clouds and light fog to start the day. But sun will win out overall, even along the coast.
We do still have to talk about smoke from Nova Scotia's swath of catastrophic wildfires. Concentrations of smoke particulates are still elevated as of Thursday morning, especially across southern New Jersey. So you may notice a hazy sky. But air quality concerns are lower, which is good news. It looks like the smoke will continue to get thinner and less of an issue by Thursday night.
You may notice a hint of humidity build in late Thursday. Sticky, but not steamy. Low temperatures Thursday night should still drop to around 60 degrees. That's still quite comfortable.
Even hotter. Highs across inland NJ will shoot for 90+ degrees. Some models even go as high as about 95. That's hot!
But it's important to point out this is not dangerous heat. Humidity levels will remain manageable. It's not lasting for days on end. And nighttimes will still cool down. All of which are important factors in mitigating bad heat effects.
Even the coast will push into the 70s and 80s on Friday.
Most of the day will be partly sunny. Clouds will probably start to thicken up in the afternoon.
And then our attention turns to an approaching backdoor cold front. (So named, because it will work "backwards" through New Jersey, from northeast to southwest.)
I do have to add the chance of a popup shower or thunderstorm late-day Friday. Between about 4 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mainly to the north and west. Very isolated, but worth mentioning.
The better chance for spotty showers will come on Saturday. Ugh, spring and summer weekends are so precious. And this one will have at least some unsettled weather.
But it has become clear that Saturday will be far from a total washout. Raindrops may linger from morning through midday, but it won't be an all-day thing. We will see lots of clouds. We will feel a stiff northeasterly breeze.
Temperatures on Saturday will mainly end up in the 60s. Thermometers may actually turn cooler in the afternoon, as our new air mass moves in. Humidity levels will drop away too.
As it stands now, Sunday will be the nicer day of the weekend. But temperatures will be held below normal for this time of year.
I'll call it partly sunny. With highs on either side of 70 degrees.
The Extended Forecast
The first full week of June looks like a mixed bag, with continued unsettled conditions.
I think the details of the long-range forecast are subject to change rapidly. But at the moment, I favor an early and late shower chance on Monday, partial sunshine on Tuesday, and clouds with an isolated shower on Wednesday.
Temperatures will likely remain at or below seasonal normals next week. But if we could bump into the lower 70s, that would be close enough to call it pleasant.