Four days of unsettled weather for NJ: Occasional rain, rising humidity

A series of storm systems will keep New Jersey's weather unsettled for the next four consecutive days. That means clouds, occasional rounds of rain, and rising humidity. It's really not going to feel like the first week of autumn, with warm temperatures near 80 degrees and pretty steamy air. Tuesday's rain chance should hold off until the early evening hours, as scattered showers and thunderstorms potentially impact northern and central New Jersey. Wednesday will feature lots of clouds and spotty showers around. Thursday looks like the cloudiest and wettest day of the week, with downpours possible. And then we will slowly dry out, clear out, and turn more comfortable from Friday into the last weekend of September.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Warm and humid, thunderstorms eventually

It is the first full day of fall. It is going to feel like sultry summertime, with warm temperatures and moderate to high humidity.

And you know what weather phenomenon likes warm, humid air? Thunderstorms. We will talk about them in a moment.

Temperatures on this Tuesday morning are hovering around 60 degrees. That is a full 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Monday morning. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will aim for the lower 80s. Definitely warm and above normal for late September.

If you venture out to a beach, keep in mind a high risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf is still posted for the Jersey Shore. Hurricane Gabrielle is far out in the Atlantic, but continues to throw some increased swell and waves our way.

Expect periods of sun and clouds with mainly dry weather throughout the day. The earliest opportunity for a shower would be late afternoon, around 3 or 4 o'clock, as a weak disturbance creeps into northwestern New Jersey.

The primary concern for scattered showers and thunderstorms will hold off until a little later though, until the early evening hours. A quick round of rain could be punctuated by pockets of heavier stuff, marginally gusting wind, and dangerous lightning. I don't think it will be a severe weather outbreak — this is just our best opportunity this week for stronger storm cells.

The best chance for rain Tuesday evening will be northern and central NJ. Showers should largely fizzle out by Midnight, leaving us with a mostly cloudy night. Patchy fog is possible. Overnight low temperatures will only dip into the mid 60s — that is pretty sticky.

Wednesday NJ weather: Clouds and spotty showers

Wednesday's forecast reads like an unsettled weather day overall. Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, more like 75 to 80 degrees. But humidity will still be very noticeable.

The first half of Wednesday looks pretty dry. But spotty showers come back into play through the afternoon and evening hours. It does not look like a washout, but everyone in the state could see some light rain at some point. It will be another "carry the umbrella" day.

Thursday NJ weather: The wettest day of the week

As low pressure tracks directly over New Jersey, Thursday looks like New Jersey's cloudiest and wettest day of the week.

Will it rain all day? No, but it might be close. I don't want to dig too deeply into the exact timing of wet vs. dry, since there are differences in model solutions. But it looks like one or two waves of rain will push through New Jersey, one in the morning and one later one. Each will be capable of producing downpours and rumbles of thunder. (The later one, leading into Thursday night, looks to be the stronger and wetter of the two.)

Despite the clouds and raindrops, Thursday stays warm and extra-steamy, with high temperatures still at least close to the 80 degree mark.

Friday NJ weather: Very slow improvements

Friday will be the final day of this unsettled weather sequence, although the drying and clearing trend will be a very slow one.

Lingering showers seem like a good bet through at least midday Friday. And then skies will probably stay mostly cloudy through the afternoon. So it will not be a pretty day — but at least it will not be as wet as Thursday.

High temperatures will be in the 70s. And I am hopeful that humidity levels will slide downward just enough to make the air more comfortable.

Saturday has the potential to be a nice weather day, with a mix of clouds and sun and high temperatures close to 80 degrees. Humidity levels will still be moderate, and I can't completely rule out a shower.

The final clearing cold front is set to arrive early Sunday morning. That will kick up a fresh breeze for the second half of the weekend, leading to a sunny, refreshing, comfortable Sunday. With highs in the 70s, that should be a beautiful early autumn day.

Early next week should stay quiet, dry, and pleasant as high pressure builds in. However, that is highly dependent on the tropics. There are two strong tropical waves being watched very closely, with trajectories that could affect the U.S. East Coast in the early to middle part of next week. Nothing definite yet — just watching for now.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.