New Jersey stays frozen, gaming out scenarios for weekend coastal storm

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For the latest winter storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

You had better get used to the freezing cold weather because it's here to stay for a long while. A Cold Weather Advisory continues until Wednesday morning, with a biting wind chill in play. Tuesday starts with temperatures in the singles and teens. Highs will only reach the lower 20s, with wind chills around 10 at best. There is a chance of a quick snow shower at some point, otherwise expect a mix of sun and clouds. The rest of the week stays quiet and cold, with highs generally hovering around the 20-degree mark. A potential coastal storm is set to develop this weekend. The forecast is still a sea of uncertainty, but we can start to see three scenarios emerge among model forecasts — two of which would bring impactful snow to at least part of New Jersey.

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NJ Weather Headline #1: It's Cold

The dome of arctic air that has taken over most of the North American continent is quite impressive. I can't even tell you when a substantial warmup is coming — maybe around the midpoint of February, if we are lucky.

Tuesday begins with temperatures in the single digits and teens, with wind chills close to zero as the wind blows. High temperatures will only reach the lower 20s — a full 10 degrees below the freezing mark, and 15 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. An occasional breeze will keep the wind chill at or below 10 throughout the day.

We will enjoy sunshine through the morning, before some clouds fill in later. A quick snow shower is possible in this kind of cold, breezy environment. I would not even rule out a dusting of accumulation, but nothing more than that. (Of course, what's a dusting on top of the 5 to 20 inches already on the ground?)

As night falls on Tuesday evening, temperatures will fall to around 10 degrees. And the slightest breeze will take the wind chill below zero. We're in dangerous cold territory again — remember, you have to bundle up and take care of yourself out there, or your body and health could be in serious trouble in a surprisingly short period of time. Wind chills may end up around -5.

Wednesday will bring a mix of sun and clouds, with high temperatures again in the lower 20s.

Thursday stays frigid, with highs only around 20 degrees.

And Friday gets even colder. Morning lows end up around 0. My latest forecast keeps afternoon highs just shy of the 20-degree mark. Brrr.

NJ Weather Headline #2: Another Potential Weekend Storm

For over a week now, long-range models have gone back and forth about a storm system signal for next weekend - somewhere in the Saturday 1/31 to Monday 2/2 time frame. Yes, another weekend storm and another chance of snow.

With about five days to go, now is the time to start getting serious about figuring out whether this is a real threat, or just a phantom. However, it is still way too early to have any clarity on forecast details: the when, the where, or the how much, for example.

As of 24 hours ago, the hype machine was fully fired up, as the European model painted over two feet of snow over New Jersey. That solution has since vanished, as the storm track of this coastal storm has now drifted out to sea.

Following along the trends of this potential coastal storm — a potential nor'easter — and knowing how these types of storms generally form and track, we can start to think about possible forecast scenarios. I can even put percentage probabilities on each scenario, guided largely by ensemble models which are very helpful at this resolution.

Scenario #1: Total Miss
This is where the Euro model currently sits. The giant cold air mass and high pressure to the north help steer the coastal low out to sea. We would see clouds and rough surf, and that's it.

I give this scenario a 30% chance of happening.

Scenario #2: Direct Hit
Perfect track, perfect phasing, perfect temperatures would yield an extended period of heavy snow and another "heck of a storm" day. Widespread 1 to 2 feet of snowfall across New Jersey.

I give this scenario a 10% chance of happening. Possible, but the least likely of these scenarios.

Scenario #3: Coast Hugger
This solution would be somewhere in the middle of #1 and #2, with a storm track that puts the left side of the storm along the Jersey Shore. In such a case, impactful snow would clip part — but not all — of New Jersey. Southern and eastern portions of the state would get the most snow, closest to the center of low pressure. Northwestern New Jersey would likely be the least snowy.

The problem is that there is a wide variety of possible outcomes that fall under this scenario, ranging from just a few inches right along the coast to a foot of snow. It all depends on the precise storm track. That will make for an incredibly tricky and precarious forecast.

Because of that variety, and because of the number of operational and ensemble forecast models that currently show some flavor of this solution playing out, I give this scenario a 60% chance of happening.

Timing
All signs are pointing toward another Sunday storm, although precipitation may begin as early as Saturday night. Again, forecast details are still very fuzzy at this point. And there's no guarantee that snowflakes will even come to visit at all. But just to give you a general guideline.

What's Next?
I am not stressing over this storm yet. I am not going to provide minute-by-minute play-by-play of every new model run. There's no point right now.

But keep in mind, according to my scenario percentages above, there is a good chance (70%) of New Jersey seeing "something" from this potent storm. It's just a matter of what.

I hope to see better model-to-model consensus by Wednesday morning, so we can make a "hit or miss" call — in other words, rule out one of the above scenarios.

And then I would imagine on Thursday, if necessary, we would start to fill in details like a more definitive timeline, potential snow totals, and the geography of this thing.

You know what my #1 concern is? If we get substantial snow — let's say 6+ inches — there won't be anywhere to plow it and shovel it, given the enormous piles of snow from last weekend's storm. The impacts of heavy snow falling on top of already-plowed heavy snow compound exponentially. That snow is already going to be around for a while, with these frigid temperatures. Add even more on top of that, and we might need snowmobiles and sled dogs to travel down the New Jersey Turnpike.

As always, we will continue to keep you posted as this potential weekend storm continues to develop. When I have an actual forecast to pass along, you will be among the first to know.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.