Latest update on prolonged cold weather and weekend coastal storm for NJ

UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest winter storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Copy and paste. It's still cold. And it's only going to get colder as the week presses on. Highs Wednesday will only reach the 20s, with sun and clouds and some flurries. Wednesday night, lows will drop into the single digits with subzero wind chills — our Cold Weather Advisory has been extended through Thursday morning, cautioning of dangerous cold. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will all be bright and calm, but temperatures will only reach about 20 degrees each day. This is about 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. And we are still watching a potential coastal storm for this weekend, in the Saturday night to Sunday time frame. The storm track is still highly uncertain, as forecast models still paint a wide variety of possible solutions. I think there is a reasonable chance of at least some snow and wind "kissing" southern and coastal New Jersey at least. Hopefully we'll have a clearer picture within the next 24 hours.

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Update #1: Frigid Temperatures

Looking for a warmup? Too bad. The unseasonable cold is only going to get worse before it gets better. And I do mean unseasonable — we are running about 20 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Wednesday's temperatures will be similar to Tuesday's, only reaching the lower 20s or so. Winds will hopefully be a bit calmer, putting wind chills in the teens — any little gust will still sting a lot. The day will start with sunshine, before clouds take over through the afternoon. A few flurries or even an outright snow shower will be possible.

As skies clear Wednesday night, temperatures will likely drop into the single digits widespread across the Garden State. The wind chill will almost certainly drop below zero. Back into dangerous cold territory once again. Our Cold Weather Advisory in effect for most of New Jersey has been extended to now run through 10 p.m. Thursday.

Thursday will be mostly sunny. Friday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. And Saturday will bring increasing clouds. All three days will be frigid, with high temperatures only around 20 degrees.

Update #2: Weekend Coastal Storm

Now let's get to the juicy part of the forecast that everyone wants to know about.

Will this weekend's storm be a monster nor'easter or bomb cyclone?

Ah, but the real question is will the powerful storm come close enough to push significant snow into New Jersey?

Bottom line: I do not know. And I am not ashamed to admit it. This is still a highly volatile, uncertain forecast because there is still a wide spread of possible storm tracks depicted among model guidance.

In Tuesday morning's weather blog entry, I laid out three broad storm track scenarios. According to my read of the latest model guidance, I believe all three of them are technically still alive. I can update the probabilities for each thusly:

1.) Complete Miss — 40%
2.) Direct Hit — 5%
3.) Coastal Hugger / Glancing Blow — 55%

While it would be foolish to take the "statewide snow bomb" option completely off the table, that possibility appears unlikely at this point. The other two are almost a toss-up, and I currently give the slight edge to the "glancing blow" solution. Most operational models have shifted notably east, away from the coast. But recent coastal storms have trended northwesterly in their final days. (Including last weekend's snow storm.) My gut says it just makes sense to be thinking about at least some snow from this storm, especially to the southeast. But I also want to be clear that zero snow is absolutely a possibility here.

With that updated, let's play a game of what we know and what we don't.

Here's what we know with reasonable confidence regarding this weekend's storm:

1.) There will be a storm. Call it a winter storm, a coastal storm, a nor'easter, whatever. It is really just a matter of whether it will track close enough to New Jersey to impact us with snow.

2.) If precipitation does reach the shores of Jersey, it would likely be straight snow. With this cold air in play, and an off-shore storm track, I doubt mixing or rain would come into play.

3.) Given the storm track up the Atlantic seaboard, the best chance of snow will be to the south and east (Cape May, Atlantic, and Ocean counties, for instance). The lowest chance of snow will be the north and west.

4.) Even if the storm does not push snow toward New Jersey, strong wind could be a problem. Top gusts might reach 50 mph. If there is substantial snow, that does raise the possibility of near-blizzard conditions.

5.) Coastal flooding is also a concern. As low pressure rapidly deepens and strengthens over the ocean, it will throw lots of water toward our coastline. The magnitude of potential surge and flooding will depend on wind direction, wind speed, storm track, and storm speed.

The biggest unknown, of course, is the magnitude of potential snow. And that is wholly dependent on the storm track. I have seen snowfall estimates as low as 0 and as high as 16 inches. Both on the same map, in fact.

At this point, we are about 84 hours away from the first snowflakes. Still plenty of time for things to change, and plenty of time for us to figure out how things will play out. This forecast is much closer to a coin flip than a slam dunk at this point — I really hope we gain better clarity over the next 24 hours, so we can cobble together a detailed forecast and New Jerseyans can plan and prepare accordingly.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.