NJ falls into warm but unsettled weather pattern as autumn begins

Happy first day of fall! The Autumnal Equinox officially arrives at 2:19pm Monday. And we welcome the change in seasons with one more stunningly beautiful weather day, filled with sunshine, dry weather, and comfortably warm temperatures in the 70s Monday afternoon. The rest of the week will be far from perfect, however, as clouds and raindrops come into play. Tuesday will be warm and fairly humid, reaching about 80 degrees. Plus, a limited round of late-day showers and thunderstorms is possible. Wednesday stays fairly unsettled, with another one or two rounds of rain from Thursday into Friday. Humidity will also be moderate to high, making things unusually sticky and steamy for the first week of autumn.

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Monday NJ weather: One more mostly sunny day

This weekend's weather was great — I am an unabashed fan of cool, crisp mornings and sunny, mild-but-not-too-warm afternoons. We will enjoy one more day of delightful weather, before changes arrive that are not very fall-like at all. (Monday is the Autumnal Equinox — fall officially begins at 2:19 p.m.)

Monday morning is cool, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Monday afternoon will be seasonably mild, with highs in the mid 70s. Expect mostly sunny skies, a light southeast breeze, and dry weather throughout. Good times all around.

The only alarm bell to ring Monday is a continued high risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf along the Jersey Shore. The culprit? Hurricane Gabrielle, throwing swell our way from 900 miles away in the middle of the Atlantic. While the waves will not be that big, the surf will have a strong pull. Those dangerous "red flag" conditions are likely to last through at least Tuesday.

Monday night, cloud cover will increase and humidity levels will tick upward too. That means instead of 40s and 50s, thermometers will only dip into the lower 60s. A little hint of stickiness in the air.

Tuesday NJ weather: Increasing clouds and humidity

First full day of autumn? Ha! Tuesday will be warm and fairly humid — not very fall-like at all.

Expect clouds with some sun poking through Tuesday. Most of the day will be fine. And it will definitely be warm, with highs reaching about 80 degrees.

A weak cold front will try to push through New Jersey in the late afternoon and early evening hours. It will "wash out" or "fizzle" right over New Jersey, so I think the associated rain chance will be limited to northern and western corners of the state. Some showers and even a thunderstorm are inevitable there, but the closer you are to the coast the better your chance of staying completely dry.

Wednesday NJ weather: More showers, still warm

Wednesday stays unsettled with a pretty murky sky. I will call it mostly cloudy. And with a stalled frontal boundary in the neighborhood, I have to include some showers in the forecast through the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will still be just on the warm side of normal, in the upper 70s. (As you can see, the cooling effects of that "cold front" will be negligible.)

Thursday NJ weather: Possibly the wettest day

If I had to guess, Thursday presents the best opportunity for widespread rain in New Jersey. It also presents the best forcing for some heavy rain and thunderstorms. Over an inch of rain is possible into Thursday night. I'm not gonna lie — I would love to see it, especially with over half of the state now officially classified as "Abnormally Dry" on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

I think we are in for one or two rounds of rain during the day Thursday, which could become steady to rain for a time. In between raindrops it will remain cloudy and humid and warm, near 80 degrees.

That rain shower chance will extend into at least the first half of Friday too. I am hopeful we will enter a drying trend from Friday afternoon into Saturday, although additional rain chances will be possible over the weekend too. Until high pressure pushes out the warm, humid air, it is just a matter of when and where disturbances ride into New Jersey.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.