No big snow in NJ’s forecast, but big cold returns by the weekend

Monday was lovely. It got as warm as 39 degrees in New Jersey (at Jersey City). We will enjoy two more days of above-freezing temperatures, before thermometers start to shift in the other direction again. Tuesday will be another decent February day, although I struggle to call it truly "pleasant," because we are still running 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals. I had been concerned about a batch of snow showers Wednesday morning across the southern half of the state. However, as that clipper system drives farther south than previously expected, it is not going to be a big deal at all. There is another, better chance for widespread snow showers coming up on Friday. And then we return to the tundra this weekend.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Another decent February day

This is the first morning in a while we have no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across New Jersey. The coastal flooding from this weekend's off-shore coastal storm is done. The dangerous cold has subsided for now. So we now enter a quiet period of weather — a little eerie here in the middle of winter. (Tuesday, by the way, is the exact midpoint between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox.)

Even though we are in the midst of a mini-warmup, Tuesday morning is quite cold. Most of New Jersey is waking up to temperatures in the teens. Plenty of single digits in the northwestern corner of the state, both positive and negative.

Sunshine should win the morning, before fair-weather clouds fill in Tuesday afternoon. It will be a dry day, with a light but noticeable breeze. High temperatures should reach the lower to mid 30s. Similar to Monday, again a bit below normal for this time of year.

Tuesday evening will bring more of the same, scattered clouds and quiet weather. Lows will once again dip into the teens overnight.

Wednesday NJ weather: Early morning snowflakes

A weak clipper system will dive just south of New Jersey early Wednesday morning. As it does, a batch of fizzling showers will try to drive snowflakes through approximately the southern half of New Jersey. Don't be surprised to see some light snow activity. Maybe even a dusting on the ground. But nothing more than that — while I had once been concerned about traction and visibility issues during Wednesday morning's commute, that is no longer the case.

The rest of Wednesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. (Probably more sun to the north, more clouds to the south.) Once again, we have a shot at above-freezing temperatures, likely for the last time this week. Highs will be in the lower 30s or so.

Thursday NJ weather: A touch cooler

Cooler air will start to leak into New Jersey on Thursday. Not a dramatic arctic blast — not yet, anyway.

High temperatures will scale back to around 30 degrees. The refreshed chill will be counteracted by sunshine, at least. While model guidance has hinted at a flurry or snow shower, I have opted for a dry forecast.

Friday NJ weather: Cold front day

Even though a few of those "weather critters" predicted an early spring on Groundhog Day, you knew this mini-thaw would not last long. Winter returns with a vengeance at the end of the week, and the door to the arctic opens again starting Friday.

Friday does not start off too bad, with increasing clouds and high temperatures reaching the upper 20s. Yes, that is below normal and below freezing. But it is way better than what is to come. A noticeable breeze will blow out of the southwest up to 15 mph early on Friday.

As a cold front approaches Friday late afternoon, a round of spotty/scattered snow showers is likely to sweep through the state. They look pretty moisture-starved, so I do not expect much accumulation here — maybe a half-inch or so. The bigger potential issue would be squall-ish snow intensity causing reduced visibility during part of the Friday evening commute. Something we will have to monitor closely.

Friday night, bitter cold air will return to New Jersey. Leading to one of the coldest weekend 'round these parts in quite some time.

Technically, Saturday's high temperatures will be around 20 degrees. But that will come in the early morning hours. I suspect many places will drop into the single digits by sunset. With a strong northwest wind gusting to 40 mph, the wind chill will fall to -10 to -20. That clearly qualifies as "dangerous" cold, when frostbite and hypothermia can set in within just 10-15 minutes.

Sunday will be about the same. Highs near 10. Wind chills below zero all day.

Depending on the exact numbers, one of these weekend days could end up being New Jersey's coldest day in years or even decades. That is the kind of ridiculous cold we are talking about here.

Monday's high temperatures should push into the 20s. Slightly better. But it will remain blustery and uncomfortable, despite sunshine.

What is missing from this forecast is significant snow, which is difficult to come by when a deep arctic air mass takes over. (The big snow/ice storm of January 25th was a highly unusual event for New Jersey in that regard.) We will see how things play out next week, as our atmosphere gets a bit wavier, meaning we see some fluctuations in temperature and a more dynamic storm track. I sense our weather could turn way more active again as we get into the second half of February.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.