Gentle changes for NJ this weekend: Some rain and a cooldown

Our next storm system arrives Friday night, with another opportunity for widespread rain across New Jersey. Until then, it will be a cloudy but seasonable day, with temperatures rising into the 50s Friday afternoon. After the wet weather clears out, cooler air moves in for Saturday — as skies clear, temperatures will fall from the 50s back to the 40s. And then Sunday will be a mostly sunny, calm weather day with high temperatures settling around the 50 degree mark. Looking long-range, the middle of next week still looks potentially busy, with periods of rain between Tuesday and Thanksgiving Thursday and some wild temperature swings from mild to unseasonable cold.

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Friday NJ weather: Cloudy skies, rain at night

Just like Thursday, Friday's daytime forecast falls in the "not bad" category.

Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast. And temperatures will be seasonable — fairly typical for late November. We are starting the day around 40 degrees. Highs should reach the lower to mid 50s Friday afternoon.

Winds will be light and the day will be mainly dry. I can't rule out a late afternoon sprinkle.

The real chance for rain will hold off until Friday night. I think the window for widespread raindrops will be about 11pm Friday evening through 11am Saturday morning. Expect about a quarter-inch of total rainfall. Nothing crazy, nothing severe, and certainly nothing wintry here.

Saturday NJ weather: Wet start, cooler finish

Given that timeline, Saturday is going to start wet with rain showers across most of New Jersey. Latest model guidance does not show rain exiting New Jersey until late morning. And then skies should quickly clear into the afternoon.

The other big story on Saturday will be cooler air leaking into New Jersey. There was a time earlier this week when this cooldown looked quite dramatic and blustery, going from 60 to 30s. But because of timing and because the new and old air masses are fairly similar, it will be a gentle transition overall.

Thermometers will sink from the lower 50s in the morning into the 40s through the afternoon. It may be breezy at times (~20 mph) but the wind should not be too fierce.

Saturday night will bring a return of cold temperatures, with a light freeze likely away from coastal and urban areas.

Sunday NJ weather: Sunny and settling down

On Sunday, our weather will settle down. And we will catch a couple days of quiet, reasonably pleasant weather.

Sunday will be mostly sunny with a high temperature near 50 degrees.

Monday NJ weather: Quiet start to an unsettled week

Monday also looks good. Expect increasing clouds and highs in the lower 50s.

The warming trend will continue through the first half of the holiday week, potentially reaching the 60s by Wednesday. But several periods of rain are possible on Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe Thursday too. That is important for travelers. And for Thanksgiving morning festivities, including the parade.

While the European model backed off its ridiculous snowfall suggestion from yesterday, a blustery cooldown is inevitable by the end of next week. The timing of that wintry chill is still very much up in the air, but will likely happen over the holiday weekend, sometime between Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Again, it could be a parade and travel concern. So worth watching very closely.

I suspect by Monday, we will have a much clearer view of how next week will play out. Until then, have a wonderful weekend!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.