NJ weather: August begins with hazy sunshine and a Heat Advisory
The Bottom Line
I feel like we need an official term for that feeling you get when you walk from a nice, cool air-conditioned space into the thick heat and humidity outside. Maybe the "ugh" effect, named for the sound you make when smacked in the face by said heat and humidity?
On average, August is New Jersey's second hottest and second wettest month of the year. (Trailing only July in both categories.) And, what do you know, we have hot and occasionally stormy weather in the forecast to start the new month.
New Jersey will be stuck in a hot and increasingly humid air mass through the upcoming first weekend of August. There will be a few thunderstorm chances along the way too.
But there is good news. I was pleasantly surprised to see models are trending cooler for next week! Just how cool, and how quickly will we make that transition? We will see. There could also be some persistent rain around, but guidance is still all over the place regarding that.
Thursday
Thursday morning isn't too bad. Temperatures are hovering around 70 degrees. Radar is quiet and skies are clear.
Temperatures Thursday will run about 10 degrees above seasonal normals, soaring into the lower to mid 90s by the afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for almost the entire state, as the heat index could exceed 100 degrees. Take care of yourself, dress for the heat, take frequent breaks, and stay extra hydrated. (That advisory continues through Thursday night and Friday too, by the way.)
Jersey Shore beaches should end up a little bit cooler, owing to a sea breeze. Watch out in the water though. Not only is a Moderate risk of rip currents posted again for Thursday. But it seems upwelling is causing ocean temperatures to turn much colder in a few spots.
We will see lots of hazy sunshine across the day. And a minimal chance of rain — there is just no spark present for a thunderstorm to develop. There might be a small window for a popup as the atmosphere destabilizes around sunset Thursday evening. But most of NJ stays completely dry and storm-free.
Hot summer days can be uncomfortable and suffocating. Hot summer nights can be even worse. Thursday night will be warm and steamy tonight, as thermometers only drop to around the mid 70s by Friday morning.
Friday
Another hot summer day, with highs around 90 to 95 degrees. The Heat Advisory will continue for at least another day.
We will have less blazing sun on Friday, as clouds increasingly mix in.
And there will be a chance of a popup shower at any time on Friday. Isolated, at best. Then a more widespread wave of thunderstorms is looking likely for Friday evening. A gusty storm and/or heavy downpours are possible in our hot and humid environment.
Saturday
I can not stress enough how ridiculously humid our air is going to be through this weekend. Dew points in the mid 70s. That's tropical. That's suffocating.
That alone makes the forecast less than perfect. And we have to add in some rain chances too, with tricky, uncertain timing.
High temperatures on Saturday will reach for 90 degrees, extending our heat wave another day. Even though that is technically cooler than Thursday and Friday, the higher humidity will probably keep the heat index close to the century mark too.
I will go so far as to say spotty thunderstorms are likely at some point on Saturday. The best chance looks to be in that late afternoon to early evening sweet spot.
Given our juicy atmosphere, any storm that forms could dump out some really heavy rain. And that raises localized flooding concerns.
Will Saturday be a washout? No way. Should you keep your plans flexible, and keep an eye on the sky? Absolutely.
Sunday
Sunday will be unsettled too. And really humid.
And also slightly cooler. Forecast highs for Sunday afternoon come down to around 85 to 90 degrees. Still at or above normal for early August.
Uncertainty is especially high regarding the timing of potential raindrops on Sunday. I favor best chances early (residual from Saturday) and late. But along comes the Euro model, plopping thunderstorms right in the middle of the day. Again, there is no solution that says all-day rain is in the cards. In fact, I expect skies on Sunday to be brighter than on Saturday.
Monday & Beyond
As I mentioned, there are signs of a downward temperature trend next week, as cooler and drier air tries to work into New Jersey.
Monday stays hot, with sunshine and lower 90s.
Then thermometers settle in the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Hopefully with drastically lower humidity. There will be a chance for some persistent showers and thunderstorms — in a really wet scenario, temperatures may get stuck in the 70s for a day or two.
Once the heat does break, I do think it will be a while before we see widespread 90s again.
Heat disorders to watch out for in New Jersey
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
