A trio of storm systems will bring a mix of snow and rain to NJ soon

UPDATE... The rest of this article is outdated...

For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Happy Small Business Saturday, New Jersey! So far, the holiday weekend has been cold and windy. But there have been few to no travel difficulties across the region, as our weather has been dry since Wednesday. That is about to change, as our next storm system is set to arrive on Sunday. And then we have been closely watching a potentially wintry situation for Tuesday — it could be New Jersey's first real chance of accumulating snow this season, but not for everyone. This is going to be a complicated mix of precipitation types and sloppy travel conditions, depending on where you are and when you are driving. Now that the first flakes are less than 72 hours away, we can start to pinpoint some more concrete details so you can prepare and plan accordingly. And there is one more third storm to watch at the end of next week too.

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Storm #1: Sunday Showers

The Bottom Line... A storm system will pass well north of us, over the Great Lakes, throughout the day Sunday. That puts New Jersey on the relatively warm side of the circulation, which means this will be mainly a rainmaker. Still, because it is such a busy travel day, it will be important to stay alert to changing weather conditions. And there is a limited chance of wintry mix developing too.

Timing... A stray shower is possible Sunday morning, but the most widespread precipitation will come through New Jersey during the afternoon and early evening hours. (Again, that is not saying much here — what falls from the sky will not be heavy at all.)

Accumulations... There are two opportunities for some wintry mix action. First, if an initial isolated shower pops up early enough, I could see a brief morning snow shower anywhere in the state. But this would not cause any significant accumulations, visibility issues, or travel concerns. Most of the state will rise into the lower-mid 40s, well above the freezing mark, which means most precipitation will fall as plain rain. But in the colder higher elevation areas of NW NJ, a period of light snow or wintry mix could hold on instead of rain. It is prudent to suggest up to a coating of accumulation is possible. But again, very limited.

Other Impacts... A final cold front will once again drag temperatures downward and introduce a bitter northwesterly wind to New Jersey. Monday will be a blustery, cold December day with morning lows near the freezing mark and wind chills easily in the 20s.

Storm #2: Tuesday Snow/Rain

The Bottom Line... This is the one we have been eyeing and talking about for over a week now. Lots of hype — very little of which is actually justified here. This would technically be considered a coastal storm, or nor'easter, given its storm track. But latest forecasts are trending too far north for this to be a statewide snow bomb for New Jersey. It will be sloppy for some, and just rainy for others.

Timing... For all intents and purposes, this is going to be an all day weather event. First snowflakes will likely arrive in the early morning hours Tuesday. The brunt of the storm, with the heaviest, most widespread impacts, will likely be around the midday hours. And then it will wrap up just after sunset, early Tuesday evening. So overall, inclement weather is possible from about 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Tuesday.

Accumulations (South & Coast)... As this storm carries warmer air into New Jersey, temperatures along New Jersey's coastal counties will spike well into the 40s on Tuesday. While I would not rule out a very quick hit of snowflakes at the very beginning Tuesday morning — something to keep an eye on — this storm will almost exclusively be a rainmaker for this half of the state. Over an inch of total rainfall is possible in spots.

Accumulations (NJ Turnpike Corridor)... This classic "battle zone" up the interior of the state will likely be cold enough at onset to support several hours of snowfall Tuesday morning through midday. But eventually, the warming will overcome the wintry weather, and snow will turn to plain rain. I think a coating to an inch is possible through the morning, which would be enough to slicken roads and make for some sloppy travel up and down the state. By the afternoon and evening commute, roads should be just wet.

Accumulations (Northwest)... Yes, you will see snow. On the order of "a few inches". I would probably put a max of 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation for the mountainous northwest corner of the state at this time. (Previous model runs showed double-digit snowfall totals, but have long since drifted away from such a dramatic solution.) Even so, a transition to plain rain is still a possibility due to warming temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Expect a sloppy, slushy mess all day. And then a hard freeze Tuesday night will likely keep things icy through Wednesday morning too.

Confidence... There are still quite a few question marks baked into this forecast. What if the storm track "wiggles" again, either closer to (warmer solution) or farther away from (colder solution) New Jersey? Will there be heavy mesoscale snow banding, leading to quick "inch or two" snow accumulations as the storm gets started? How quickly will the snow stick to the ground? And how much snow that falls from the sky will actually accumulate? Could icing due to sleet or freezing rain get in the way of snow accumulations? These are elements that we will ponder over the next 72 hours, as they could affect snowfall totals and overall storm impacts.

Action Steps... For now, I think it is wise to expect an inclement, potentially messy weather day on Tuesday. It is not looking like a high-impact blockbuster storm for New Jersey. But there will be snow and ice, especially the farther north and west in New Jersey. This is especially impactful because it will be the first snow and ice of the season — if you need to stock up on shovels, salt, etc. now is the time. Plan your Tuesday accordingly to limit travel during the day. And keep a close eye on the forecast between now and then — once warnings, watches, and advisories are issued, you may need to take additional steps to stay safe and warm during the storm. School closings or (more likely) delays are possible, especially in the "snow zone" to the northwest.

Storm #3: Friday Quickie

Bottom Line... There is one more storm system in view, around the end of next week in the Friday-Saturday time frame. I do not have much detail to offer here, especially with two other weathermakers in the way. Long-range model guidance shows light precipitation, generally a mix of snow and rain, with light accumulations possible. I am really not sweating over this one yet.

Let's Talk More... As always, once this storm is within 48 to 72 hours, we will talk more seriously about specific timing, totals, impacts, etc. Conveniently, that will be just as Tuesday's storm winds down.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.