Enjoy it while it lasts: This is when NJ gas prices will rise again

💲 NJ continues to have the cheapest gas in the Northeast, according to GasBuddy

💲 Wholesale prices continue to trend down allowing retailers to absorb the increase

💲 Prices will likely start going up in mid-February

Even with a 4.2 cent increase in the state gas tax, New Jersey has the cheapest gas in the northeast, according to Gas Buddy.

Gas Buddy analyst Patrick De Haan said wholesale prices continued to trend down into the new year allowing retailers to take the hit rather than increase their price at the pump. The statewide average as of Friday was $2.79, a decrease of three cents. It's down 18 cents per gallon compared to a year ago.

"If stations are more profitable, they might just not raise prices; they might just kind of take it on the chin. The tax is still implemented, but stations may have just absorbed the increase out of their margin instead of raising prices," De Haan told New Jersey 101.5. "The stations essentially decided that they were okay with taking less margin and not having to raise prices."

New Jersey has carved a spot for the lowest gas prices in the northeast with Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, all quite a bit higher, according to De Haan. New York's average is $2.99, Pennsylvania is at $3.04 and Maryland at $2.83.

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Spring gasoline blends and travel could push prices higher

Gas prices tend to follow trends, which would mean New Jersey prices should start to head up by the middle of February or early Match, according to De Haan.

"A lot of that is because of the change of the seasons. We start switching back to more expensive blends of gasoline in the spring, refineries start their maintenance, which reduces their output. As they do that, maintenance and demand for gas and will start to go up. Americans will start to hit the road during spring break, travel to warmer temperatures, all of that will push prices up later this spring. So enjoy these relatively low prices," De Haan said.

One factor keeping prices low is OPEC's increase in oil production that started in March. The increase is currently on pause but is expected to resume in the spring.

Not expected to be a factor in oil and gas prices is Venezuela, despite having the largest proven oil reserves of any country in the world, according to De Haan.

"Lots of Americans make the wrong assumption that that means that that oil is going to be on the market tomorrow. Venezuela, right now, is almost forgotten in terms of its oil production," De Haan said. "They have fallen mightily in the last several decades, because of sanctions, because of the socialists not investing in keeping up that infrastructure that produces oil.

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Venezuela and Canadian tariffs loom as wildcards

Venezuela produces 900,000 barrels of oil per day compared to 13.8 million by the United States. De Haan said that there are many Maduro loyalists in power and it will be several years for Venezuela to become a major oil producer, if at all.

The wildcard for New Jersey gas prices is tariffs levied against Canada. The Garden State is very reliant on the Irving oil refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, that produces 300,000 barrels of oil per day.

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