‘Fake Spring’ is over: More temperature swings ahead for NJ

Bottom Line

72 degrees! Tuesday was easily New Jersey's warmest day in about four months, as we basked in springlike warmth and spectacular sunshine.

Now, it's all over. Wednesday's temperatures will turn about 15 degrees cooler. Having said that, even though we take a break from 60s and 70s for a while, there are plenty of things to like about this forecast.

New Jersey's weather will have three elements in play over the coming days:

1.) A weak impulse riding through our atmosphere Wednesday evening, which could spark a sprinkle or flurry.

2.) A prominent on-shore breeze, forcing cool, damp air to take over the state.

3.) A slow-moving cold front arriving Sunday, with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout New Jersey.

Grab the jacket again, and let's dig into the latest details.

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Wednesday

Remember, long-term average high temperatures here in mid-March range from 49 to 51 degrees. While Tuesday's 70s were 20+ degrees above normal, Wednesday's 50s are still warmer than usual for this time of year.

We are starting with temperatures above freezing across New Jersey, mainly in the 40s. Fairly comfortable.

Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s Wednesday. Not too shabby. Especially with a bright mix of sun and clouds throughout the day.

One little wrinkle that will affect our weather in the coming days is a wind direction shift Wednesday afternoon. An east breeze could cause temperatures to drop in Jersey Shore communities through the afternoon.

Wednesday evening, a weak impulse riding just north of New Jersey could spark a few sprinkles and/or flurries. This chance is really limited to the northern edge of the state.

Otherwise, clouds will increase overnight with low temperatures averaging upper 30s by Thursday morning.

Thursday

Thursday looks like a "blah" weather day, especially the closer to the coast you are.

The reason? An on-shore breeze, blowing off the chilly 42-degree ocean water. This time of year, such a sea breeze can have a huge impact on air temperatures and cloud cover throughout New Jersey.

Skies will be cloudy throughout Thursday. And there could be some pockets of fog around, especially close to the coast. High temperatures will only reach about 45 to 50 degrees. Again, the coolest temperatures in the state will probably be in beach towns.

Friday

Friday will be a bit better, as temperatures moderate to the 50s. To be more specific, I am thinking lower 50s along the coast and upper 50s inland.

Skies will still be mostly cloudy. But we will get a dry end to the workweek.

Saturday

Saturday is going to be a battleground day. To the east, an on-shore (southeasterly) breeze will again try to keep us cool. Meanwhile, to the southwest, warmer air will try to invade New Jersey once again.

The end result will likely be a big disparity in temperatures from one side of the state to the other. Something like 50 to 70 degrees. I think most of NJ will reach 60+ degrees.

Again, clouds will win the sky Saturday. We should squeeze out another dry, quiet weather day.

Sunday & Beyond

A southerly wind on Sunday will allow most temperatures to spike back into the 60s. At least one model pumps out 70 degrees for inland South Jersey — although I have opted not to go that warm in my latest forecast call.

It will be windy, with broken clouds and peeks of sun Sunday morning through midday.

Eventually, a slow-moving cold front will push scattered showers and thunderstorms into New Jersey. The timing of that rain is still a little shaky, but I'm leaning toward a mid-late afternoon arrival at this time.

From late Sunday into early Monday, pockets of rain could be heavy at times. And given our relative warmth and humidity in the air, stronger storm cells could develop. Gusty winds, flooding, and frequent lightning are possibilities if those storms really get going.

Rain may linger into Monday morning too. In terms of totals, an inch or two of beneficial rainfall is a possibility, although not a guarantee. It depends just how scattered ("spread apart") and how prolonged the rain is.

Behind that front, temperatures will cool again, into the 50s for next Monday (St. Patrick's Day) and Tuesday. Warmer 60s will probably return through the middle of next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.