Buckle up, NJ: Wild temperature swing in the weather forecast

The Bottom Line

Much of New Jersey has only seen a Trace of rainfall so far in October. That is less than a hundredth of an inch. Even more concerning, there is no appreciable rain in the forecast for the next week or two, at least.

If that forecast holds, this could be New Jersey's driest calendar month in recorded history. (Those records go back to 1895.) That is not a good record to break.

Along with the drought spiral, temperatures are going to progressively corkscrew downward in the coming days. We are done with widespread 80s for a while. Wednesday will be limited to the 70s. Then three days of 60s will be much more typical of late October.

And then another big, blustery cooldown arrives for the final weekend of October. By early next week, we could be looking at widespread frost/freeze mornings and afternoon highs only in the 50s.

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Wednesday

Record high temperatures are safe Wednesday, as temperatures end up 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. It is still going to be a gorgeous day, as thermometers still end up on the warm side of normal.

Wednesday morning begins with temperatures right around 50 degrees. That is generally my benchmark for recommending a jacket or sweater first thing in the morning. Maybe yes, maybe no. It is a cool, clear, crisp start to the day.

I am calling Wednesday mostly sunny. Along with the bright blue sky, you will catch some white puffy clouds floating overhead at times. You will feel an occasional southerly breeze too.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon should reach the mid 70s. Again, nice and warm. And completely dry.

Wednesday night will be comfortably cool. With some clouds building in, low temperatures will only dip into the 50s. As a cold front arrives, there is a chance of an isolated shower or sprinkle between Midnight and daybreak — but don't expect much.

Thursday

Following that early morning cold front, a new air mass will build into New Jersey. This one will be much cooler and even drier than the last one. So we will see a "temperature correction" on Thursday back to more typical late October conditions.

High temperatures on Thursday will slide back to the lower to mid 60s. Right on the long-term average highs for this time of year.

Aside from an early morning shower (slight chance, at best) and a stiff breeze (over 20 mph at times), the day will be just fine. Early clouds will quickly give way to sunshine.

Friday

I like Friday's forecast a lot. It reads like a typical, pleasant late October day.

It will be sunny, dry, and calm. High temperatures will stay in the lower to mid 60s. A good way to end the workweek.

Saturday

Saturday will be marked by our next cold front. Although it will be another almost-totally dry frontal passage, the wind and cooling effects will definitely be noticeable.

Aside from a brisk wind, possibly gusting up to 30 mph, Saturday's weather will be just fine. Mostly cloudy skies in the morning will brighten up by the afternoon. High temperatures will still be well into the 60s, possibly touching 70 degrees.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday will be our next cooldown day. And it will be a positively November-ish end to the weekend. With a mix of sun and clouds and a stiff northwesterly breeze, high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s or so. That is decidedly below normal.

That cool air will be directly overhead Monday, likely leading to the coolest day of the season so far. Widespread 30s (and a frost/freeze) Monday morning. Then highs only in the lower-mid 50s Monday afternoon.

Long-range forecast models suggest the chill will not last long though. Thermometers should rise into the 60s and even the 70s through Halloween.

Again, there are no substantial rain chances in the forecast for the next 7 to 10+ days. The tropics remain fairly quiet at this time, with no storms currently being monitored for development.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center